If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns from his US trip without a solid framework for ending the Gaza war and a hammered down, binding hostage deal, it will certainly serve his own electoral base and extreme Right coalition partners. All other national and international interests, however, would be left subjugated.
During the almost 10 months of the war in Gaza, Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden have been in major disagreement about “the day after.” Despite attempts by the US to engineer a regional agreement that will include a stable government of moderate forces in Gaza to replace Hamas, the prime minister has been blatantly reluctant to provide any political goal to the war, because the war is his guarantee to remain in power.
The end of the war will force early elections because of the deep mistrust of the Israeli public in its government, and because the more extreme factions of the government will likely resent both ending the war and any agreement stabilizing Gaza with moderate Palestinian forces. Similarly, on the Palestinian side, an Israeli-Palestinian agreed disengagement towards an eventual reality of two states for two peoples would be a major defeat for Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Most Israelis yearn for the release of the hostages, but failing to complement the hostage-release deal with a long-term agreement to rehabilitate Gaza would allow chaos to rule, as there is no vacuum in Gaza. When Israel pulls back, and as Hamas governing capabilities are largely diminished by the war, more extreme forces will be drawn in. Specifically, the Gaza branch of ISIS has already become a major factor in ruling Gaza as the intensity of the war weakens. That branch has dual motivation – to fight Israel and to oppose the Shi’ite influence that is achieved through the dependence of Hamas on Iran.
Chaos, destruction, and desire for revenge
Dr. Matti Steinberg, an Israeli scholar specializing in interpreting open-source Islam writings, writes: “It is a safe assumption that the greater the chaos in the Gaza Strip, so too will global jihadi groups be drawn into taking action in that theater and capitalizing on the chaos, destruction and desire for revenge.”
Thus, even if a ceasefire is reached soon, in the context of an agreement that will include the release of Israeli hostages and imprisoned Palestinian terrorists, the extreme forces will continue to fight against any efforts – Israeli and international – to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip and restore order. The indispensable ceasefire, even a provisional one, will trigger chaos in Gaza, with grave humanitarian and security consequences. Such a scenario will cause instability that will likely require military and civic intervention, which will draw Israel back to Gaza, further deteriorating the situation.
In parallel, through Israeli unilateral steps, disguised as bureaucratic orders that shift control of administrative functions for the army to civilian ones, the situation in the West Bank is quickly worsening. These steps, which spell the de facto annexation of the West Bank, are causing an increased level of violence, producing further instability.
Long-term framework
The only way to limit and negate the expansion of extreme and radical forces on both sides is to embed the ceasefire and the release of the remaining 120 Israeli hostages in the context of a longer-term framework that will include the following attributes:
• A regional coalition with the participation of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf States, and the Palestinian Authority;
• The governance of Gaza by said regional coalition, with the support of Israel, the US, and EU countries;
• An agreement between Israel and the PA to discuss practical steps for separation of territories, with the intent of eventually leading to a two-state solution, once the Palestinians have complied with prerequisites such as substantive reforms and deradicalization.
Granted, there is no way that Netanyahu will agree to such a blueprint, but he is on his way out of office within a few months. The departing US president, free from considerations related to an election campaign, can now speak to the Israeli people with a message of hope. This last war has been one too many, and Israelis and the Palestinians should marginalize the radicals, religious fundamentalists, and terrorists on both sides and switch tracks: from allowing chaos and anarchy to rule to stability, security, mutual respect, hope and eventual peace.
Admiral (ret.) Ami Ayalon is a former director of the Shin Bet security agency and past commander of the Navy. Gilead Sher, a fellow at the Baker Institute, chairs Sapir Academic College adjacent to the Gaza border, was a former senior peace negotiator and was chief of staff to prime minister Ehud Barak. Orni Petruschka, a social activist and philanthropist, is a former tech entrepreneur.