Iran has for 45 years been such a negative force, driving wars against Israel, spreading jihadi poison throughout the Middle East and menacing the world with a nuclear arms race, that it can be hard to contemplate anything different.
But the son of the last shah says that with a little help, Iran might soon become a democratic nation in harmony with the West and partnership with Israel.
“It could happen relatively fast,” said Reza Pahlavi, 63, in a video interview from his Washington base. “The nation is ready.”
Pahlavi said that at least 80% of the Iranian people oppose the Islamic Republic, are aware of their ancient, friendly ties to the Jewish people, and yearn for a government that reflects their democratic aspirations and peace-loving nature.
He argued that regime change in Tehran could radically transform the Middle East, including Israel’s approach to the Palestinian question – because if Israel were not menaced by Iranian proxies like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, it could be more accommodating.
“The two-state solution remains on the table as the probably most desired outcome, but the climate has to exist,” he said.
Israel cannot remain constantly under attack
“Israel cannot be constantly under attack by proxy groups that Iran is provoking. If, let’s say, the circumstances for true peace finally exist, then shame on Israel and its government not to take that opportunity. But until that situation exists, shame on those who are blaming Israel for protecting itself. It’s just an existential threat.
“Israel is the only exception in the Middle East as a democratic country [and] it could be an extremely important strategic partner to us. Why should we be in conflict?” he said.
“And that’s why I’m saying that the relationship with the two countries, when we benefit as strategic partners, and we include in that partnership the rest of the region… then everybody benefits.”
It is, of course, a vision extraordinarily at odds with a moment in history when Israel finds itself in an escalating conflict with the Iranian proxy Hezbollah, which from Lebanon has been bombarding and rocketing Israel’s North for almost a year, causing tens of thousands to be displaced and leaving the region on the cusp of total war that to a great degree has been instigated by Iran.
But Pahlavi assesses that the Iranian regime is actually rather brittle, because it is so unpopular, and has been emboldened by “weak” Western efforts to engage it: “You should actually understand why it has to be regime change as a solution because at the end of the day, it’s not the gun but the finger on the trigger. It doesn’t matter what they sign. You can’t trust them for a second.”
He believes regime change is possible if the West provides targeted support to opposition movements, including massive sanctions on regime elites and logistical backing for national strikes, alongside robust engagement with Iranians through social media to reassure them of a better future.
Crumbling like communism
DRAWING PARALLELS to the fall of communism, he said Iran’s regime could crumble unexpectedly under the right circumstances.
In the interview, he argued that the promise of a future wide-scale amnesty could compel defections from key regime elements, including parts of the military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Pahlavi, 63, fled Iran as a young man when his father, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown in 1979. Within months, the country was reconstituted as an Islamic Republic – a gamble by the armed forces and the country’s elites that very quickly became a nightmare for the regime and for Iran’s people.
Today he is offering himself as a unifying transition leader in a post-theocracy phase – a notion that rests on name recognition, a certain nostalgic bent, and what seems like a genuinely inclusive and liberal worldview.
My conversations with Iranian dissidents suggest it may be viable, though far from a sure thing. There would certainly be howls of protest from some people who remember the dark side of the shah.
Pahlavi pointed out that the relationship between Jews and Iranians predates modern Israel by millennia. The biblical roots of this connection go back to Cyrus the Great, the iconic Persian leader who is revered in Jewish history for allowing the Jews to return to Jerusalem and rebuild the Temple.
Modern relations between Iran and Israel were strong before the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Under the shah, Iran was one of the few majority-Muslim countries to maintain close diplomatic ties with Israel.
Economic, military, and cultural cooperation flourished. It wasn’t until the rise of the Islamic Republic, under Ayatollah Khomeini, that hostility toward Israel became a cornerstone of Iran’s foreign policy.
The broader implications of a democratic Iran extend beyond Israeli-Palestinian relations. Today proxy militias and terrorist groups, armed and funded by Iran, not only threaten Israel’s security but also destabilize countries across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen.
Pahlavi points to the success of the Abraham Accords, which have normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, as evidence of the potential for a new, more peaceful Middle East.
He believes that the Iranian people, watching the rapid development in Gulf states at peace with Israel like the United Arab Emirates, sense a missed opportunity.
Iran, under a democratic government, could become a regional leader in innovation and economic growth – another incentive to seek peace with Israel rather than conflict.
“Look at the writing on the wall: The day after the October 7 attack, the regime tried everything to boost this pro-Palestinian movement even in soccer stadiums they were raising the Palestinian flag,” he said. “I invite you to observe for yourself: People were chanting slogans pro-Israel, and telling where to shove that flag to the regime.”
It’s tempting to believe all this might come about – but is it the standard human weakness that makes us grasp for an appealing scenario in the face of evidence to the contrary? I am not so sure.
I visited Checkpoint Charlie mere months before the Berlin Wall came down – and did not foresee the coming change. Pahlavi’s optimism is dazzlingly alluring, yes – but it may not be unfounded.
Could he be the man who brings the vision to life? For the son of the shah, the journey back to a free Iran would be one that ends in a better version of the place where it began.
The writer is a former chief editor of The Associated Press in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, the former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem, and the author of two books about Israel. Follow his newsletter “Ask Questions Later” at danperry.substack.com