The logic in warfare strategy is entirely based on game theory- if you want to coerce your enemy into defeat, you exact such a high price from them that you incentivize their capitulation. This logic does not work for Israel when dealing with the Palestinians and Hamas.
There are several reasons for this, but the main one is that Israel and the US (and other international actors), which pressure Israel, create a framework in which the idea of resistance (Muquwamah) for Palestinians continually makes sense. In order for Israel to win, it has to recreate the rules of the conflict where Muquwamah is not worthwhile, does not work in the long term, and therefore does not make sense in the eyes of the Palestinians.
The Palestinian ethos, in its essence, is resistance. The idea formulated in one sentence- Israel is the ultimate cosmic evil, the purveyor of everything that is wrong in the world, and the answer to the question of the meaning of life for a Palestinian is to fight Israel, sacrifice oneself (and one’s family) to cause as much destruction as possible for Israel.
It does not matter if the resistance improves the lives of Palestinians because it is not a constructive ethos that is concerned with building something but rather with the destruction of Israel. If causing harm to Israel also causes harm to one’s society, it is a cherished endeavor. This was reiterated by Hamas leader in a speech given after the ceasefire was announced, “We will proceed on the path of the martyred leaders until we achieve victory or martyrdom, Allah willing”.
The Palestinian ethos rests on Israel and bases its entire identity in opposition to it. In short, the Palestinian ethos needs Israel to exist in order to give it purpose – an object to hate and project all evil unto. The Palestinian cause and its ideology, “Palestinianism,” is to Israel what the Joker is to Batman. If Israel were to disappear tomorrow, the propagators of Palestinianism would not know what to do with themselves, just like the Joker’s existence is predicated on fighting Batman.
Palestinian POV
From the Palestinian point of view, there is never a loss. Every loss of life in the Mukawamah is a sacrifice for the greater cause, which makes the sacrifice not only sacred but also a cause of celebration. The more suffering the Palestinians endure, the more “sumud” or resilience they prove that they have. The more you suffer, the more you are praised- victimhood becomes heroic. In the aftermath of the ceasefire, Palestinian propogandists presented the people of Gaza as a nation of “lions” after they “survived a genocide”.
Under this framework of thought, it is almost impossible to deter the Palestinians because they do not make the connection between action and consequence. They simply do not see the destruction in Gaza which Hamas has brought upon them as a direct result of Hamas’ aggression on October 7th. There is not a reflective self-assessment or self-criticism. The suffering they endure is part of the price that they pay for their heroic “sumud”. In fact, in some way, they even celebrate the destruction in Gaza because they believe that it will be rebuilt in the future, and they will prevail. The “night is darkest before dawn” theme is evident in most propaganda videos from Gaza these days. This is the reason they genuinely see themselves as victors, not just to save face for propaganda videos.
A tenet of Islamic thought that the Palestinians utilize is the “Saber” or patience. This idea means that you can win against any opponent if you play on time and you are determined more than they are. You might suffer more than your opponent, but if you manage to wait them out, you would eventually win. Bassam Naim, another Hamas official, has said, “The blow that began on October 7, and the steadfastness and resistance that followed it, prove that the peoples are capable of attaining the means and conditions that suit them in order to achieve their great goals of liberty and independence”. This underlines that they believe that resistance actually yields gains.
The cycle of Palestinian “resistance” from the outside can look not only untenable but also lacking any logic. No matter what happens, the Palestinians would see it as a victory, even as they destroy themselves. Khaya said in his speech that “October 7 Will Remain A Source Of Pride To Our People And Our Resistance”.
If we try to see the war from the Palestinian perspective, their self-destructive behavior has a logic to it. A sick, twisted logic, which Israel inadvertently makes sound.
After Hamas arch-terrorists who commit heinous acts are sentenced, they usually deliver a speech that is supposed to be heroically defiant and romantic before they go to jail. They basically say that sometimes they know they will get released, and their spirit of resistance is not broken despite Israel jailing them. I hate to say it, but they are not wrong.
Whenever a terrorist is sent to jail and believes religiously that he will be released in a future deal, it is based on Israel’s short-sightedness and overly sentimental thinking. The Palestinians have always used Israel’s “vulnerability” – the no man left behind collective ethos, to advance their future terrorism. The terrorists know that in the future, hostages will be kidnapped, which would serve as their Get Out of Jail Free card.
Hamas is celebrating its “victory” with swaths of Palestinians screaming “Khaybar ya yahud” because they survived the war, and Hamas is still in control. They realize that the world would not let Israel win as long Hamas’ strategy involves deliberately increasing the Gazan casualties. They can use their “saber” and wait it out, and eventually, Trump and the world would not tolerate the continuation of the war.
We cannot allow the twisted logic of resistance to make sense to Palestinians. If they see that this strategy actually yields results- terrorists are released, and Israel is, in fact, willing to abandon its war aim of eliminating Hamas only to get some hostages out, they will continue with the path of resistance. Hamas has netted political gains in Gaza Judea, and Samaria for “achieving” the release of terrorists from all factions as part of the deal.
The cancerous idea of resistance is self-sustaining not only because of the romantic narrative but because Israel never actually killed the idea by showing that it factually does not predict the future and does not provide “gains” to the Palestinians.
Israel needs to return to the foundational idea of our national security - the Iron Wall. This means that the cat-and-mouse dynamic of releasing terrorists for hostages ever since the 1985 Jibril deal must be stopped. The disastrous hostage deal is a result of Palestinians/Hamas simply adapting their strategy based on the incentives that Israel and the US created for them to operate.
We cannot kill the idea of the Muqawamah if we make sure that it nets gains for the Palestinians. The only path of eventual peace can only be achieved if enough Palestinians abandon this idea because it will not make any sense.
The writer is a research analyst at the Israel Defense and Security Forum-Habithonistim, specializing in the fields of delegitimization, US-Israeli relations, and Hezbollah. Currently pursuing a Masters in Data Science at the Hebrew University.