Days after US Vice President JD Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference announcing that US President Donald Trump was elected as a kind of “new sheriff in town,” reports increasingly indicate that the White House will push for a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
The push to end that war is not new but what is interesting is the increasing sense that this policy is tied to the push that got a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza.
NBC reported on Saturday that “Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are planning to head to Saudi Arabia to initiate negotiations toward peace between Russia and Ukraine.” This is significant because Rubio just wrapped up a visit to Israel and Witkoff played a key role in pushing for the Gaza hostage deal.
The war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza do not seem similar on the surface. The war in Ukraine was caused by Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Moscow hoped to reach Kyiv and remove the elected government of Ukraine, or at the very least weaken Ukraine so much that it became a rump state occupied by Russia or divided into pieces.
Moscow had already pursued this policy back in 2014 when it pried loose areas in eastern Ukraine, which then became the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. These two small breakaway states contain areas of Russian speakers, who tended to vote for pro-Russian candidates in Ukrainian elections since the 1990s. Moscow’s view was that as Ukraine drifted toward the West, it was becoming a threat.
Russia’s policy in this regard is not new. It has long viewed Ukraine and other buffer areas between it and Europe as its “near abroad.” Russia historically has expanded into these areas, and even further west into Poland and the Baltics.
Times change though and what was once part of the Russian Empire years ago, or even part of the Soviet system, is now made up of countries that don’t want to be tied to Moscow. They want Western democracy, values, and independence. Russia would prefer countries like Ukraine to be weaker and either tied to Moscow or “neutral” and thus not part of the EU or NATO.
The war Russia launched had ground down Ukraine. But Ukraine has held on with backing from the West, including Western arms. The problem is that there is no end in sight. There is no real strategy. While Russia’s advance was initially checked, it has now waged a war of attrition that increasingly helps Russia redefine the world order.
War in Gaza
In Gaza, the situation appears different. Israel left Gaza in 2005 and Hamas illegally took over the area in 2007. Hamas has used it as a terror base to attack Israel. Hamas is backed by Qatar, Turkey, and Iran. It also has decent ties to Russia. Hamas is part of the trend to re-make the world order. Israel, by contrast, is part of the West and is a democracy. Israel’s friends tend to be the friends of Ukraine.
The war launched on October 7, 2023, was a genocidal war designed to weaken Israel and create an Iranian-led coalition that would attack Israel from multiple fronts. Hamas is seeking to take over the West Bank as well. Israel has counterattacked and fought a long grinding war in Gaza.
The war has not succeeded and Hamas has survived. Israel has no long-term plan or strategy to remove Hamas, at least not one that was put in place for 15 months when Israel had ample opportunity to reshape Gaza.
The Gaza war and the Ukraine war have similarities. They have both stretched on far too long. The Ukraine war is affecting a generation of young men and women who have fought to defend their country.
While war can be a positive influence on nationalism, it is not a positive influence when it ends up like the First World War, grinding down a generation. Germany’s goal in the trench warfare in France was to bleed France white, as the German chief of staff at the time said. It worked. France was weakened by the tremendous losses between 1914 and 1917. Similarly, Ukraine is being purposely “bled” by Russia.
In Gaza, Israel also ended up in a quagmire. With no clear goal, the IDF spent months going into and then leaving areas. It would defeat Hamas and then leave and Hamas would return. Hamas hid in tunnels and buildings or fled with civilians, only to return. Hamas recruited as well, refilling its ranks.
This is a war that Hamas has fought partly on its terms, much as Russia has fought the war in Ukraine increasingly on its terms. Long, endless wars are not good for democracies like Israel and Ukraine.
It is in the interest of the people in Jerusalem and Kyiv to have a shorter war and return to building a successful state. Unfortunately, when one is in the midst of a war, it is not always easy to see what is in the national interest.
With the absence of a clear goal for victory, the option of a ceasefire in Ukraine and Gaza is an option the Trump administration has helped make possible. Ending these wars is likely better than fighting them for many more years without end.
Trump’s team got a ceasefire in Gaza. It’s not clear if it can hold. It’s possible that the same team can bring results in Ukraine.
Both wars should be a lesson that wars need a strategy. Sending men endlessly to fight a battle that has no strategy or goal is not in the interests of the West or of democracies. It is usually in the interest of totalitarian anti-Western regimes to drag the West into endless wars.