Ukrainian and American officials met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday to discuss the Ukraine war and whether a ceasefire might be offered to Russia. Ukraine has been in the spotlight since the Trump administration came into office.
An icy meeting in the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, when he argued with Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump, illustrates the challenge that Riyadh has in bringing the US and Ukraine back together.
This is a new role for Saudi Arabia to play. If it succeeds, then Riyadh could have a lot more clout, and it may lead to more work with the Trump administration.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have played a positive role in the Ukraine war, helping secure the release of prisoners on both sides. These exchanges have given the Gulf states a reputation for helping to bring positive results with a degree of neutrality.
Saudi Arabia changes
Riyadh is a key partner of the US historically. Over the last decade, however, criticism of Saudi Arabia has increased, primarily in circles on the Left in the US and in circles linked to Qatar. This was especially true during the first Trump administration, when Saudi Arabia led the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt to cut ties with Qatar.
Things have changed now. Saudi Arabia has reconciled with Iran and is seeking more outreach to non-Western economic blocs. It also realizes that the West can be fickle, and that it needs to hedge its bets.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has positive memories of the first Trump administration. It hosted a summit in 2017 with Trump and other Arab and Muslim leaders. Riyadh also signed off on Bahrain and the UAE joining the Abraham Accords in 2020.
Since then, Saudi Arabia has watched closely to see how the Abraham Accords have developed. It was outplayed by Tehran regarding the October 7 massacre, as Iran sought to take control of the region.
Riyadh watches Israel closely. It wants Israel to make some moves toward supporting the Palestinians in exchange for normalization.
Saudi Arabia, however, doesn’t want to step up too much in Gaza out of concern it will get burned. It has appeared to back a Cairo proposal for reconstruction and has also reached out to the new government in Syria.
Saudi ties to Lebanon
Saudi Arabia also has historic ties to Lebanon, especially the Sunni community there. It brokered the end to the Lebanese Civil War in 1989.
Riyadh might be closely monitoring the new talks between Israel and Lebanon aimed at dealing with various border disputes. In addition, Riyadh has much to say about the Houthis beginning to escalate again, and it has interests in Iraq.
This is why Saudi Arabia’s role in the Ukraine talks is so important. If the US and Russia can achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine, then it will be another win for the Trump administration after having secured a ceasefire in Gaza. Trump could position himself as the “ceasefire president” with a doctrine geared toward ending wars.
Saudi Arabia could be a key partner in this push for peace and stability. This would likely require Riyadh to step up a bit in terms of engaging about Gaza and taking a larger role.
With more clout in the Trump White House, the Saudis could position themselves to be game changers in the region.
Time will tell, but first of all, the Ukraine ceasefire would need to achieve positive results. Gaza will likely need to have a prolonged ceasefire as well.