Support for Hamas control of Gaza rose 20% among Arab Israelis - IDI survey

Support for Hamas control of the Gaza Strip rose 20% among Arab Israelis from September to January, according to a survey from the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute.

When asked who should govern the enclave after the war, most Jewish respondents preferred a multinational force, rather than Israeli control. Among Arab Israeli respondents, support for Hamas control rose sharply from 8% in September to 29% in January, becoming their top choice.

Regarding democratic governance, optimism dropped slightly from 37% in December to 35% in January. The Jewish political spectrum reflected familiar trends: 15.5% of left-wing respondents were optimistic about democracy’s future, compared to 24% in the Center and 44% on the Right.

Ceasefire and hostage deal 

Among Jewish respondents, 47.5% believe the first stage of the ceasefire agreement served Hamas more than Israel, while only 21% say they think Israel benefited. A majority of Arab respondents (just over 50%) view the agreement as equally beneficial to both sides. Among Jewish political factions, right-wing and centrist respondents were more likely to say Hamas had gained more, while those on the Left were split between saying both sides benefited equally or that Hamas was favored.

Despite concerns over the deal, a majority (51%) of right-wing Jewish respondents support continuing to the next phase, compared to overwhelming support from centrists and leftists. Jewish women (73%) were significantly more supportive of moving forward than Jewish men (58%). Among Arab respondents, 94% of women and 89% of men back the next phase.

Returning northern residents home

Public opinion on whether security conditions allow for displaced northern residents to return is divided. A majority of Arab respondents believe it is safe, while Jewish respondents are split. Among Jewish political affiliations, left-wing and centrist respondents were slightly more inclined to say residents should return, while right-wing respondents were more skeptical.

Inquiry into October 7

Following the resignation of IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, most Jewish respondents believe the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) should also step down due to their responsibility for the failures of the October 7 massacre. A smaller group believes resignations should only come after political leaders take responsibility.

A majority (65%) support a state commission of inquiry into the failures of October 7, continuing a trend from July 2024 (67%). Support for a government-appointed inquiry remains low at 17%, and only 12% favor internal reviews.

Judicial Selection Committee structure

A percentage of Israelis (42%) prefer maintaining the current structure of the Judicial Selection Committee, which requires broad consensus on judicial appointments. Meanwhile, 29.5% support changing the system according to the Levin-Sa’ar proposal, which would grant veto power solely to political representatives.

When asked if now is the right time to advance the proposal, 47% of Jewish respondents said no, while 38% favored proceeding. A majority of left-wing and centrist respondents oppose moving forward at this time, while just over half of right-wing respondents support implementing the changes.

Trump’s role in the ceasefire deal

A majority of respondents (72.5%) credit US President Donald Trump with moving the deal along. The sentiment is shared across the political spectrum, with 74% of right-wing, 79% of centrist, and 83% of left-wing Jewish respondents agreeing with Trump’s claim.

Additionally, 72.5% of Israelis believe Trump is likely to pressure Israel or even impose sanctions if the Netanyahu government does not align with his broader Middle East policies, including a potential normalization deal with Saudi Arabia.