Israel must leverage current US support while it remains strong and adopt a new strategic framework for confronting Hamas, Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, deputy head of the Palestinian arena in the IDF Planning Directorate, said on Sunday.
While a military operation was always an option, Yagur, also a former senior officer in Naval Intelligence, argued that, with US backing and a clear understanding of Hamas’s vulnerabilities, Israel should first explore alternative strategies.
“The rhetoric surrounding the planned aggressive military campaign—whether to deter Hamas and pressure it into concessions or to conduct a large-scale military operation—gives me, at least, the impression that once again, we are misreading Hamas at this particular moment,” he said.
According to Yagur, while Hamas is reluctant to reengage in full-scale conflict, it does not currently fear such a scenario.
He warned that renewed intense fighting could endanger the remaining hostages in Gaza and allow Hamas to inflict heavy losses on Israeli forces. A prolonged conflict, he added, could also derail broader regional initiatives, including normalization efforts with additional Arab states.
Instead, Yagur proposed a combined military and civilian strategy, prioritizing civilian measures while providing tactical military support as needed.
“If Israel wants a ‘both-and’ approach rather than an ‘either-or’ one—minimizing costs while achieving similar effects -I believe the renewed campaign should focus mainly on the civilian front (with some military backing) rather than being a primarily military campaign with civilian elements,” he said.
One of the key issues troubling Hamas, Yagur argued, is the Trump administration’s proposed voluntary migration plan for Gaza’s population. He noted that Hamas fears this initiative could weaken its connection to civilians in the Strip and undermine its role as the guardian of the Palestinian cause.
As such, Yagur believes Israel should make the migration plan a central strategic initiative rather than a byproduct of military action.
“Israel should rethink the characteristics of the current campaign against Hamas and, in coordination with Donald Trump’s administration, develop the specifics of the voluntary migration plan for Gaza,” he said.
To encourage participation, Yagur suggested Israel offer a compelling package of benefits to Gazan families, including cash payments, shelter, foreign citizenship, and potential employment for heads of households. He advised that outreach be conducted discreetly through social media rather than public announcements.
“The plan should include a particularly attractive incentive package for each Gazan family—cash payments, shelter, foreign citizenship, and perhaps even employment opportunities for the head of the household. This should be promoted through social media (not publicly) to encourage Gazans to apply,” he said.
At this stage, before launching a military offensive with clear consequences, Yagur argued that such incentives could prompt a significant number of people to leave Gaza, which, he noted, is “not sacred land.”
However, he cautioned that destination countries should be carefully selected, excluding Egypt and Jordan due to potential national security risks. He even suggested Qatar as a possibility, citing US leverage over the Gulf state.
Recognizing that Hamas would actively resist the plan, Yagur acknowledged the need for military measures.
“To implement the plan in the face of Hamas’s expected opposition, military action on the ground would likely be required to facilitate its execution,” he said.
Beyond military considerations, Yagur argued that pressure stemming from the migration plan, rather than direct combat, could push Hamas to release additional hostages.
“There is a reasonable chance that the pressure this plan exerts on Hamas will push it to release more hostages just to halt its implementation. Over time, with no public legitimacy and facing a strategy of rendering it obsolete, Hamas may even agree to allow its senior leadership to leave Gaza for exile abroad,” he said.
The significance of Israel’s approach
Yagur emphasized that how Israel conducts its campaign is critical to its success.
“Ultimately, ‘how’ we return to combat is highly significant. Even civilian-focused warfare is still warfare. If we manage the ‘how’ correctly, with a clear understanding of what truly matters to Hamas, we may achieve successes that cannot be attained through a primarily military approach—one that we have already tested,” he said.
He urged Israeli decision-makers to carefully consider these factors and adopt a new strategic framework for confronting Hamas.
“I urge decision-makers to delve deeply into this issue and perhaps adopt a different way of thinking that could lead to a new and alternative pattern of combat against Hamas,” he said.