Iran navigates regional changes amid rising tensions in Lebanon and Syria - analysis

“Given the special status of Syria in the Middle East, Iran believes that the Syrian future should be shaped by its nation," a senior Iranian official said.

 Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi looks on before a meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in Tehran, Iran, August 26, 2024. (photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi looks on before a meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in Tehran, Iran, August 26, 2024.
(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

Iran is weighing its response to changing events in Lebanon and Syria. In Lebanon, pro-Hezbollah rioters sought to block a road to an airport after flights from the Islamic Republic were halted, as the terror group wants to resupply itself with the money and backing of Tehran.

In Syria, Iran has lost its influence and is looking to claw some of it back. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with his Lebanese counterpart, Youssef Rajji, in a telephone conversation, where they “discussed bilateral ties and regional developments, including ways to resolve the issue of passenger flights between the two countries,” Iran’s IRNA state media said over the weekend.
Araghchi and Rajji “stressed the necessity for Iran and Lebanon to expand their ties in political, economic, trade, and cultural sectors based on mutual respect and in the best interest of both nations.”
It is clear that Tehran is worried it will lose out in Lebanon and that it will not be able to supply Hezbollah as easily. It has already lost its land route via Syria.
The Islamic Republic is playing nice for now – on the surface. “Araghchi congratulated Rajji on his election as the new foreign minister of Lebanon and wished him and the new Lebanese government success. Iran and Lebanon have been at odds ever since an Iranian flight to Beirut was halted after the Israeli regime accused Tehran of using civilian aircraft to send cash to the Hezbollah resistance movement,” the report noted.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits a defense exhibition in Tehran, Iran, February 12, 2025 (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits a defense exhibition in Tehran, Iran, February 12, 2025 (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)

Meanwhile, in Syria, Iran has called for wider participation in the political process. It is not clear what exactly this means, but the Islamic Republic is angling to restore its influence.

“Given the special status of Syria in the Middle East, Iran believes that the Syrian future should be shaped by its nation. A senior Iranian official says the Islamic Republic urges all political parties in Syria to play a role in the future of the Arab country,” IRNA noted.

“Mohammad Reza Raouf Sheibani, the Iranian foreign minister’s special envoy for Syrian affairs, said on Saturday that Tehran attaches importance to the stability in Damascus. He made remarks on his visit to Moscow on Friday, where the envoy held talks with Russian officials regarding Syrian developments.”
This is significant since Moscow and Tehran are close allies, and both have interests in Syria.
“Iran opposes any foreign intervention in Syria’s fate,” the report said. The Islamic Republic had, until recently, been intervening in Syria and using it as a conduit for weapons trafficking and drug smuggling. Tehran’s comments are thus a bit ironic.

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Focus on developments in Israel and Gaza

Iran is also paying close attention to developments in Israel and Gaza, including US President Donald Trump’s plan to resettle Gazans, which the Islamic Republic heavily opposes.

In addition, Iranian state media reported on Israel receiving “a shipment of MK-84 bombs, which was delayed by former US president Joe Biden about a year ago.”
Iran’s state media called the MK-84 “an unguided 2,000-pound bomb capable of ripping through concrete and metal with a large blast radius. According to Al Jazeera, the shipment contained 1,800 such bombs.”
IRNA further noted, “The Biden administration sent thousands of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel after war broke out in the Gaza Strip. But it later imposed restrictions on one of the shipments, citing fears over civilian casualties.”
Iran is clearly watching these developments closely as it seeks to navigate a changing region.