The military victory Israel achieved in Gaza masks a more complex reality. While Israeli forces have effectively dismantled much of Hamas’s physical infrastructure, the terrorist organization has masterfully transformed the hostage crisis into a psychological weapon, leaving Israel in an increasingly precarious position.
Hamas’s strategic manipulation of the hostage situation reveals a disturbing truth: military superiority doesn’t guarantee strategic victory. Despite suffering significant battlefield losses, Hamas has orchestrated a sophisticated propaganda campaign around hostage releases, turning each negotiation into a theatrical display of defiance.
These carefully staged events, complete with uniformed members and orchestrated celebrations, serve a dual purpose: they rally support among Hamas’s base while presenting a carefully crafted image to the international community.
The timing of this crisis coincides with President Donald Trump’s return to prominence in American politics, adding another layer of complexity to Israel’s strategic calculations. Trump’s unconventional approach to diplomacy and his tendency to view international relations through the lens of personal deals could either benefit or complicate Israel’s position.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s invitation to be the first foreign leader to visit the Trump White House is notable. However, Trump’s statement about the US taking over Gaza is at best confusing.
While the Trump administration has shown strong support for Israel, his focus on securing a financial agreement with Saudi Arabia raises questions about the durability of this alliance.
Diplomatic tightrope
Israel now finds itself walking a diplomatic tightrope. Each hostage release, while bringing relief to affected families, has become a double-edged sword. Hamas weaponizes these moments, using them to strengthen its narrative and maintain international attention on Gaza. This strategy effectively diverts focus from Hamas’s own war crimes while subjecting Israel to intense global scrutiny.
The ongoing negotiations, reliably reported to be conducted via shuttle diplomacy, reveal Hamas’s strategic depth. By retaining hostages and releasing them selectively, the terrorist organization maintains leverage while casting doubt on the possibility of a comprehensive resolution.
This calculated approach forces Israel to confront an impossible choice: make concessions that could embolden future hostage-taking or risk the lives of civilians who represent every sector of Israeli society.
Military options remain on the table, but each carries significant risks. A full-scale ground offensive could potentially rescue hostages and further degrade Hamas’s capabilities, but at the cost of high casualties and severe international backlash. Precision raids offer more focused alternatives but face substantial operational challenges, especially with Hamas using hostages as human shields.
ISRAEL’S PREDICAMENT extends beyond the immediate crisis. The country faces growing international isolation, with few allies willing to offer unconditional support. While the current American administration maintains its backing, the volatile nature of US politics and Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy suggests this support shouldn’t be taken for granted.
The path forward requires Israel to adapt to the asymmetric nature of this conflict. Traditional military superiority alone won’t secure victory in this battle of perception and psychology. Israel must develop new strategies that counter Hamas’s propaganda machine while maintaining pressure on the organization without alienating potential allies or inflaming global opinion.
As Israel grapples with these challenges, it must also prepare for a future where its security depends less on external support and more on its own resilience and strategic independence. The current crisis demonstrates that even decisive military victories can be undermined by sophisticated psychological warfare and propaganda.
The resolution of the hostage crisis will likely define the next chapter in this conflict. However, success will require more than military might or diplomatic maneuvering. It demands a nuanced approach that acknowledges the changing nature of modern warfare, where victory on the battlefield doesn’t necessarily translate to strategic success.
We have always been told that US policy is to not negotiate with terrorists. We must be prepared for the possibility of a policy change or a short-term transactional approach.
For Israel, the true challenge lies not just in defeating Hamas militarily but in breaking free from the psychological trap it has set. This requires maintaining moral clarity while developing more effective countermeasures to propaganda warfare. Only by addressing both the physical and psychological dimensions of this conflict can Israel hope to achieve a lasting victory that extends beyond the battlefield.
Dr. Michael J. Salamon is a psychologist and strategic consultant specializing in trauma and abuse. He is director of ADC Psychological Services in Netanya and Hewlett, NY, and is on staff at Northwell, New Hyde Park, NY.
Louis Libin is an expert in military strategies and innovation, and advises and teaches military innovation, wireless system operations, and emergency communications at military colleges and agencies. He founded a consulting group for emergency management, cybersecurity, IP, and communications.