Sunday marked one year since Iran launched its first direct ballistic missile attack on Israel, a moment that marked a dangerous escalation in Tehran’s aggression against the Jewish state.
Exactly 12 months later, as Jews up and down the country were celebrating the first day of Passover, Iran’s proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, fired a missile toward Israel that saw citizens of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and everywhere in between fleeing to bomb shelters.
The situation remains volatile, and the world is watching. Now, with US President Donald Trump signaling that he will make a swift decision on Iran, he has a critical opportunity to finally enforce real deterrence against the regime in Tehran.
Trump said on Sunday that he expected to make a decision on Iran very quickly, after both countries said they held “positive” and “constructive” talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene this week, with further talks scheduled for next weekend in Rome.
Israel anticipates a nuclear Tehran
Trump, who has threatened military action if no deal is reached on halting Iran’s nuclear program, told reporters aboard Air Force One that he met with advisers on Iran and expected a quick decision, giving no further details.
Experts within Israel are playing the cautious game. “I think he made a very big mistake by already calling the talks ‘good’”, Dr. Benny Sabti, a senior Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), stated on Monday. “That’s not true at all. You can’t possibly know what happened during the two hours of talks.” The result, he warns, could be disastrous: “The Iranians will feel they can accelerate their nuclear plans without conceding to the Americans. The Americans will pay the price – and so will we – for this naivety.”
Since Iran’s unprecedented missile strike on Israel last year, the regime has only grown bolder in its rhetoric. The Houthis continue their attacks in the Red Sea, disrupting trade and defying calls for restraint. Hezbollah is attempting to rearm itself after being decimated by Israel last year. Tehran itself has continued to inch closer to a nuclear breakout. Despite sanctions and diplomatic pressure, Iran has not been forced to pay a decisive price for its provocations.
This is where Trump comes in.
The president has long taken a hardline stance on Iran, withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposing maximum pressure sanctions. But now, with Tehran testing the limits of Western resolve, he has an opening to reset the equation. If he acts decisively, he can force Iran to back down, or face consequences that finally make the regime think twice.
Past negotiations have only bought Iran time to advance its nuclear program. The Oman talks cannot become another endless cycle of dialogue without results, especially given Israel’s desire to deal with the Iranian issue once and for all.
Trump should set clear redlines: No uranium enrichment beyond an agreed amount, no ballistic missile development, and an end to proxy warfare. If Iran refuses, the Americans must be prepared to escalate with crippling sanctions and, if necessary, military strikes on nuclear facilities. Israel has already stated that it is ready, if necessary, for the latter option.
The Houthis’ attacks on shipping lanes are a direct extension of Iranian policy. Trump needs to continue to authorize targeted strikes on Houthi missile sites and IRGC operatives in Yemen. The message must be clear to Iran: Tehran’s proxies will not act with impunity.
Israel remains Iran’s primary target, and the US must ensure that Israel has the military and intelligence support needed to defend itself, including advanced missile defense systems and preemptive strike capabilities. If Iran attacks again, Israel should have a green light to respond with overwhelming force.
Trump has built his presidency on confronting adversaries. Now, with Iran testing the limits, he has a chance to prove that his tough rhetoric translates into real results. If he fails, the Iranians will push forward with their nuclear program, embolden their proxies, and threaten Israel like never before. But if Trump succeeds, he could reshape the Middle East.
One year after Iran’s first direct missile strike on Israel, the world is waiting. Trump’s next move will determine whether Tehran’s aggression is met with weakness or with the kind of strength that could be a game changer.