While President Trump secures a natural resources deal with Ukraine, many find his Middle East strategy unpredictable. As the United States embraces isolationism and continues nuclear talks, criticism grows over leaving allies like Israel vulnerable.
This perception not only affects Israel but may also shape the strategies of other Middle East actors, including China and Arab nations. The Middle East, with decades of wars among countries, terrorist groups, and civilians, is uniquely complex.
Apart from its instability, its vast resources attract both regional and global powers, which could lead to greater chaos if Trump 2.0 disengages from the issues in the region.
Consider Korea after World War II and during the Korean War. If the United States had embraced isolationism, then the Soviet Union would have controlled all of Korea with nuclear weapons. There would be no South Korea as one of the world’s safest nations today.
Neighboring countries like Japan would have faced severe security threats, and China would have dominated Asia. Yet, the Middle East faces many more risks if the current administration leans towards appeasing the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In the context of the Middle East, China is already capitalizing on this uncertainty. On April 29, 2025, China landed a military aircraft in Beirut, Lebanon for the first time, and on April 19, 2025, it also began joint aerial drills with Egypt, named “Eagles of Civilization 2025.”
Both moves, occurring within Trump 2.0’s first 100 days, do not reflect the administration's determination to curb China’s global influence.
Apart from Egypt and Lebanon, and the military influence of Beijing, there are other nations in the Middle East moving toward China economically, if they face more ambiguity from President Trump.
The effects of this uncertainty are visible. On April 28, 2025, China’s state-run Sinopec signed a $4 billion joint venture with Saudi Aramco’s Singapore unit to build a refinery and petrochemical complex in Fujian, China.
The deal involves port operations and crude oil transport, and strengthens China’s economic foothold in the Middle East, as Saudi Arabia commits to supplying a million barrels of oil daily for China’s oil-to-chemicals projects.
Two days later, on April 30, 2025, a Chinese joint venture led by China Railway Construction Corporation won a $1.13 billion contract to relocate King Saud University’s facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Diriyah project.
This deal, which is part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, further deepens Beijing’s role in the kingdom’s infrastructure.
These moves could reflect the uncertainty raised from unexpected nuclear talks and the hesitant approach of the Trump administration in prioritizing the Middle East.
Ramifications of the tariffs placed on China
On the other hand, the trade tariffs on China could push the country to strengthen its ties with Middle Eastern allies further in order to secure its global economic position. This happened on April 23rd, 2025, with China signing the major liquefied natural gas deals with the United Arab Emirates to replace the United States’ supply.
Considering these, engaging the regime in Iran in negotiations does not necessarily mean appeasing terrorism, but prolonging this approach signals ambiguity to the region.
This approach could weaken “America First” in reality and undermine the US's leadership. It gave the Islamic Republic of Iran 100 days to plan its next moves without pressure from the United States. Note that this regime needs only a few weeks to build a nuclear bomb! It empowers China in the Middle East and motivates Arab nations to strengthen their alliance with the country.
In this situation, President Trump faces two paths: continue this uncertainty with ongoing talks or signal that the United States is a reliable partner for peace.
Recent statements from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio signal a potential shift.
On May 1, 2025, Hegseth posted on X a warning to Iran that supporting the Houthis would lead to military consequences.
Marco Rubio, in a Fox News interview, outlined firm conditions for nuclear talks with the Islamic Republic. “They have to walk away from sponsoring terrorists, they have to walk away from helping the Houthis, they have to walk away from building long-range missiles that have no purpose to exist other than having nuclear weapons, and they have to walk away from enrichment.” Rubio said.
In the end, the rise of isolationism risks pushing Arab nations toward China, losing the opportunity of strengthening an alliance with Arab Countries, and emboldening the Islamic regime in Iran to advance its plans.
Yet, the Trump administration stands at a pivotal moment to reverse this course and act in a way that Beijing and Tehran cannot anticipate.
As President Trump prepares to visit the Middle East, the region watches to see how the ambiguity unfolds.
Faezeh Alavi is an Iranian artist, analyst, and researcher focusing on foreign and development policy.