The US and NATO leave Afghanistan to its fate

Come the fall, however, Simentov will almost certainly be making his way to Israel. He has vowed that if the Taliban ever return to power he will leave Afghanistan – and this they are highly likely to do once US and NATO troops pull out. US President Joe Biden has set the iconic date of 9/11 – September 11, 2021, exactly 20 years since the attack by al-Qaeda on the USA that triggered the American invasion – as the absolute deadline for the total withdrawal of US armed forces, although they may all be gone by the end of July.

However, neither Biden nor NATO, nor any of the coalition nations have put in place an effective military presence or a strong administration to follow their withdrawal. Meanwhile, the Taliban are seizing the initiative by launching intensive attacks on government forces, and are threatening Kabul.

Turkey, both a Muslim country and a member of NATO, is making the most of its equivocal position. During the NATO conference on June 14, Turkey – which has been hosting talks with the Taliban and the Afghan government – undertook to safeguard the air link out of Kabul after US forces had left. This was taken to mean that Turkey would prevent Hamid Karzai International Airport from falling into Taliban hands. How much reliance can be placed on this undertaking is in doubt, but US officials are reported to have seized on it.

The Taliban, which emerged following a 10-year occupation of the country by the Soviet Union, swiftly became a formidable military machine. Toward the end of 1996 it captured the Afghan capital. By 1998, the Taliban were in control of almost 90% of Afghanistan.

Initial support from some of the population quickly faded as the fundamentalist group imposed hard-line Islamist practices, such as amputations for those found guilty of theft, and public executions of adulterers. Television, music and cinema were banned, and girls age 10 and over were forbidden from attending school. Meanwhile, they continued to wage their two-handed war against the US presence in the country on the one hand, and the Afghan government on the other. That conflict continues.

GULBUDDIN HEKMATYAR, who has twice served as Afghanistan’s prime minister, has reportedly warned that what he terms the “irresponsible” American withdrawal is leaving behind a government unable to avoid a certain war, as the Taliban attempt to take back control of the country. 

“It seems very improbable for the Afghan government and its military to be able to sustain this fighting,” he said.

There is just a chance that Hekmatyar’s fears may prove premature. Despite Biden’s announcement about the US military withdrawal, reports have appeared in the media suggesting that an internal debate in the Pentagon is under way over what level of Taliban resurgence would amount to a national security threat to the US, and therefore justify military action. For example, if the Taliban try to retake Kabul or another key capital in the wake of US forces withdrawing, airstrikes in support of the Afghan government, involving US aircraft or armed drones may be justified. Since there would be no US aircraft remaining in Afghanistan, any future attacks would have to be launched from bases elsewhere. Biden, who would himself have to approve any such action, is likely to require a good deal of convincing.

The UK, meanwhile, has decided to allow over 4,000 Afghans who worked for the British military, mostly as interpreters, to settle in Britain together with their families. Defense Minister Ben Wallace explained that those being relocated were people who might otherwise “be at risk of reprisals” from the Taliban. He said those who worked for the British had “sacrificed a lot to look after us, and now is the time to do the same.”

Home Secretary Priti Patel said, “It’s our moral obligation to recognize the risks they faced in the fight against terrorism and reward their efforts.”

The US, which employed many more local Afghans, is working on a similar scheme to protect those who worked as translators for US forces and fear for their lives once foreign troops leave Afghanistan. On June 10, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said, “The United States government will do what is necessary in order to ensure the safety and protection of those that have been working with us for two decades.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin gave the same message to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

In disengaging from Afghanistan, the Western alliance is tacitly acknowledging that its involvement and its efforts have failed. It has tried for 20 years to ensure that a democratically elected Afghan government was backed by a well-trained professional military capable of maintaining the peace. Yet the extreme Islamist Taliban are currently occupying a large area of the country and, heavily armed, seem poised to defeat the government and take control of the nation. The 3,500 American lives and the $2.26 trillion expenditure seem an inordinately heavy price to have paid for so little gain.