PARIS – After Norway, Ireland, and Spain, pressure is growing for French President Emmanuel Macron to recognize a Palestinian state. If France takes that step, other European Union member states are bound to follow.
Macron crossed the Rubicon last February when he said that recognition of a Palestinian state was no longer a taboo for France. Taking it even further this week, after the trilateral recognition, Macron said that he was ‘’totally ready’’ to recognize a Palestinian state, but considers that such a move should come “at a useful moment.’’
The question now at hand is, what would constitute “a useful moment’ for Macron’? Before October 7, such a statement would have probably meant waiting for some sort of direct or indirect dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians. This is not the case anymore. Macron could decide to go for recognition when, and if, Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement.
He could also decide that the moment for recognition has come upon further escalation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, or if another fatal incident takes place, such as the one in Tal al-Sultan on Sunday night. A strong decision against Israel at one of the international courts could also encourage such a move.
Is France in favor of recognizing a Palestinian state?
“I’m in favor of France recognizing a Palestinian state, but not necessarily tomorrow,’’ European Parliament member (MEP) Bernard Guetta told The Jerusalem Post. Guetta is number two on Macron’s Renaissance list for the upcoming elections.
“It is only by imposing this principle that France, the European Union, and the international community can recreate a new reality for the Palestinian Authority, with a renewal of negotiations.”
Macron made this latest statement on Palestinian recognition while in Germany, the first visit in 24 years by a French president to France’s neighbors on the other side of the Rhine River. The timing of his declaration was evidently not a coincidence.
By relaunching the French-German alliance, Macron is signaling to Chancellor Olaf Scholz that even Israel’s best friend must begin thinking in the direction of recognizing a Palestinian state. It would be easier for Macron to take such a step in conjunction with the Germans than on his own.
That being said, Israel has two elements working in its favor, at least in the very short run.
The first is the upcoming elections for the European Parliament, set for June 9. Recognition of a Palestinian state is the banner being raised by the European Left and extreme Left. In fact, for the French, the war in Gaza has emerged as a major issue in the European elections.
Much of the political discourse has been focused in recent weeks on Gaza, such as televised candidate debates – even more than on the economic integration of the European Union or the idea of a common defense strategy.
If Macron takes this step now, before the elections, he will be seen as weak, caving in to the demands of his political foes, at the height of the campaign.
The second element is the argument Jerusalem has been pushing forward in the past few months, that recognition now, after October 7, would be rewarding Hamas and its terrorists, sending the world a signal that their violence had paid off.
This is an argument many in France can identify with because of the reality they have been living in since the Islamic terror of 2015.
European analysts believe that Macron might not have a choice but to go ahead in the near future with recognizing a Palestinian state, should a mass of EU member states take the plunge. Israel’s traditional allies within the EU, such as Austria, are not expected to join, but there are several others who might advance on this in the coming weeks and months.
Slovenia has already said it will recognize a Palestinian state in June.
Belgium, Malta, and Portugal could also opt for recognition this summer if the war in Gaza continues at the same pace as now.
The more the war in Gaza goes on without a ceasefire agreement, the more likely it is that European countries will recognize a Palestinian state.
This is also the argument heard in Italy, where, unlike in France or Belgium, the war in Gaza has not become a major European elections topic.
Italian premier Giorgia Meloni was once considered an ally by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, much like other far-Right, nationalist leaders in Europe, although that is not really the situation anymore. Italian journalists who spoke to The Jerusalem Post all agreed that Meloni would follow Italian public opinion.
EU regulations demand that foreign affairs policies be adopted in unanimity by all 27 member states. For many years, Israel had felt safe on the recognition issue, knowing that EU member states were unable to reach a consensus on the topic.
The rift between the pro-Israeli camp and the pro-Palestinian camp was steady. But this analysis is now void.
The question Israelis have been asking themselves: “Is Europe lost?” is no longer relevant because two EU member states have de facto ditched their obligation to adopt such dramatic diplomatic measures unanimously. Each country will decide for itself.
Norway (not a member of the bloc), Ireland, and Spain said clearly, that the time had come to force a solution on Israel since Israel refuses to listen to the international community on Gaza and Rafah.
Other European countries are feeling the same. They could decide to act upon that soon.