As US evacuates Middle East personnel, Iran appears to downplay tensions - analysis
How is it possible that Iran’s foreign minister was in Oslo attending a forum, while tensions were supposedly spiraling out of control?
Reports emerged on Wednesday evening that the US was preparing to evacuate non-essential State Department personnel and families from several locations in the Middle East.
This included Iraq and states in the Gulf, all of which are near Iran. Rumors spread of a number of incidents that appeared to pave the way for a possible conflict between Iran, the US or Iran and Israel. However, for Iran it seems to be almost business as usual.
How is it possible that Iran’s foreign minister was in Oslo attending a forum, while tensions were supposedly spiraling out of control?
On the one hand, it could be that Iran’s foreign minister and president don’t know what plans are afoot within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
This has happened in the past when the IRGC planned attacks on Saudi Arabia back in 2019 and when they attacked ships in the Gulf of Oman. In those cases it often appeared that Iran’s government was almost oblivious to the plans happening under their feet. This isn’t to excuse the government and pretend it negotiates in good faith, but it is a pattern in Iran that the foreign ministry and other officials will appear to be doing one thing, while other hands of the state do something else.
What does Iranian state media IRNA say?
It says that Iran has ordered a new enrichment plan in response to what Iran sees as a “politically motivated” IAEA resolution. The state media IRNA also says that Iran’s foreign minister has called for “regional unity” against Israel. Iran has also said it might withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty if UN sanctions are reinstated. It also says that European countries lack legal authority to activate “snapback” sanctions on Iran.Yet Iran is also focused on the yearly Hajj in Saudi Arabia in which 18 Iranians died this year, Tehran says.
There is no doubt that Iran is angry over the moves by European countries and the IAEA. It is also clear that Iran’s friends, such as Moscow, are non-plussed.
Russia’s representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov “warned European countries against their insistence on a new anti-Iran resolution at the IAEA and the threat to activate the ‘snapback’ mechanism.” He said this was “playing with fire.”
Speaking at the quarterly meeting of the Board of Governors of the IAEA, he condemned a threat by three European countries to activate snapback sanctions.
“This is simply playing with fire, the result of which is obvious: destabilizing the Middle East and undermining international peace and security,” Ulyanov stated, encouraging diplomacy as the way forward.
Iran’s Vice-President Mohammad Eslami dismissed the report by the IAEA and said Iran will respond in “due time” to what he said was a provocative action.
Meanwhile, in a formal letter to the UN Security Council on Wednesday, Iran’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York, Saeed Iravani, warned that Iran would take proportionate measures if it is sanctioned.
It could withdraw from the NPT.
Iran’s responses so far have hinted at a number of moves designed to ratchet up pressure. However, none of the moves appear military in nature. They all appear to be about condemning the moves by western countries at the IAEA.
The country also wants more support from Russia and other powers.
Iran is not acting like it is in the middle of a military alert. It hints at long-term changes, such as more enrichment and building a new nuclear facility. All of that will take time.
